@MastersThesis{Calheiros:2008:SiPrIm,
               author = "Calheiros, Alan James Peixoto",
                title = "Sistema de previs{\~a}o imediata da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o: o 
                         hydrotrack",
               school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                 year = "2008",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
                month = "2008-07-04",
             keywords = "precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, sistemas convectivos, 
                         propaga{\c{c}}{\~a}o, fortracc, hydro-estimator, precipitation, 
                         convectives systems, propagation, fortracc, hydro-estimator.",
             abstract = "A previs{\~a}o imediata da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\'e} 
                         essencial para diversas atividades socioecon{\^o}micas, entre 
                         elas destacamos a avia{\c{c}}{\~a}o e a defesa civil. Modelos de 
                         previs{\~a}o imediata, que se baseiam no acompanhamento dos 
                         Sistemas Convectivos de Mesoescala (SCM) s{\~a}o fundamentais em 
                         um sistema de apoio a tomada de decis{\~o}es em 
                         situa{\c{c}}{\~o}es meteorol{\'o}gicas extremas, principalmente 
                         quando descrevem e extrapolam no espa{\c{c}}o e no tempo as 
                         estruturas precipitantes. Este trabalho tem o objetivo de 
                         desenvolver um m{\'e}todo de previs{\~a}o imediata da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o com base na utiliza{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         conjunta do algoritmo ForTraCC (Forecasting and Tracking of the 
                         evolution of the Cloud Clusters), de previs{\~a}o da 
                         propaga{\c{c}}{\~a}o de SCM em curto prazo, e do modelo 
                         Hydro-Estimator, de estimativa de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         utilizando dados de sat{\'e}lites geoestacion{\'a}rios. Uma 
                         contribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o espec{\'{\i}}fica desse estudo 
                         correspondeu aos testes de sensibilidade do modelo Hydro-Estimator 
                         e na melhoria da previs{\~a}o da propaga{\c{c}}{\~a}o da 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. A t{\'e}cnica ForTraCC/Hydro-Estimador, 
                         que passa a ser chamada HydroTrack utiliza como dados b{\'a}sicos 
                         as imagens do sat{\'e}lite GOES, no canal 4, a cada meia hora. 
                         Para o desenvolvimento deste trabalho foi necess{\'a}rio realizar 
                         uma an{\'a}lise estat{\'{\i}}stica da evolu{\c{c}}{\~a}o das 
                         estruturas de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos SCM, para ajustar o 
                         modelo aos campos de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o. Com 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o {\`a} propaga{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos sistemas 
                         precipitantes, foram analisadas diversas t{\'e}cnicas para prever 
                         a propaga{\c{c}}{\~a}o das estruturas de 
                         precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o baseado em correla{\c{c}}{\~o}es 
                         cruzadas, auto-corre{\c{c}}{\~a}o, conserva{\c{c}}{\~a}o do 
                         movimento, campos de vento de modelos de mesoescala e campos 
                         termodin{\^a}micos. O HydroTrack apresentou bom desempenho nas 
                         previs{\~o}es da {\'a}rea e da taxa de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o 
                         estimada em todos os m{\'e}todos analisados. Com 
                         rela{\c{c}}{\~a}o ao deslocamento dos sistemas precipitantes o 
                         m{\'e}todo do deslocamento do centro de massa apresentou melhores 
                         resultados para sistemas pequenos, enquanto a m{\'a}xima 
                         correla{\c{c}}{\~a}o cruzada representou melhor os sistemas 
                         maiores. ABSTRACT: The knowledge of convective system evolution is 
                         of fundamental importance for understanding weather and climate, 
                         particularly in the tropics, and it is essential to improve 
                         forecasting of these systems to reduce vulnerability to extreme 
                         weather damage. The identification of predictor parameters of the 
                         evolution of convective system, based on its previous evolution, 
                         could give valuable contribution to nowcasting schemes. The 
                         objective of this work was to develop a nowcasting method based on 
                         the ForTraCC, forecasting and tracking of cloud cluster and the 
                         Hydro-Estimator, a methodology for precipitation estimate from 
                         satellite images. Furthermore, with the results from the tracking 
                         of the precipitation structures were possible to study: storm 
                         propagation and its relationship with the mean wind field, 
                         thermodynamics parameters and the parameterization of convective 
                         system displacements. The basic data for this analysis was the 
                         GOES image each thirty minutes and weather data analysis from Eta. 
                         To conduct the development of this nowcasting model was necessary 
                         to know the statistical behavior of the precipitation structures 
                         during the lifecycle. We intend to develop the nowcasting 
                         precipitation model based in the precipitation field extrapolation 
                         in time and space using the Hydro-estimator and the ForTraCC 
                         techniques. This study was also useful to understand the movement 
                         of the rainfall cells. Nowcasting techniques, which are not as 
                         computationally intensive, have a very important role to play in 
                         the time frame between 0 to 6 hours, where numerical model does 
                         not have good skill. The HydroTrack presented a good performance 
                         related to system area and rain rate prediction for all methods. 
                         With regards to system displacement prediction the conservative 
                         method offered a good skill to small systems, whereas for larger 
                         systems was better foreseen to maximum cross correlation.",
            committee = "Angelis, Carlos Frederico de (presidente) and Machado, Luiz 
                         Augusto Toledo (orientador) and Chou, Sin Chan and Vila, Daniel 
                         Alejandro",
           copyholder = "SID/SCD",
         englishtitle = "A rainfall nowcasting system: the hydrotrack",
             language = "pt",
                pages = "131",
                  ibi = "6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/UmPA5",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/6qtX3pFwXQZGivnK2Y/UmPA5",
           targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "08 maio 2024"
}